EAGC 2007: Uncertain times ahead
Posted: 18 November 2007
Delegate voting is a feature of the annual European Autumn Gas
Conference (EAGC) and can produce some attention-grabbing results.
Gas
Strategies Consulting, who sponsored the electronic polling at the 22nd
EAGC held in Düsseldorf, have confirmed this with an absorbing and
detailed report on the results of the polls undertaken that is now on
the EAGC website.
For example:
- Almost 40% of EAGC delegates believe that NOCs, as we now know them,
will be either the dominant force in upstream supply or predators for
the European companies now holding that position
- Just over a third of delegates voted that Europe's upstream companies
would cease to so closely resemble each other and would follow diverse
supply routes, risk strategies and priorities, with alliancing as a core
requirement
- Just over a third saw them assuming an enabling/intermediary role no
longer based on a superior grasp of technology
The annual polling of delegates at Europe's longest running annual gas
conference offers a rare chance to ask a significant cross-section of
the industry for their sentiments on how the industry is developing and
what the future might hold.
Given the attendance at the conference, with
distinguished speakers and senior-level delegates, the results provide a
valuable insight into the preoccupations of the people at the sharp end
of European gas.
Rather than let the results of the polls fade with the memories of the
conference, for the past three years, Gas Strategies, which sponsors
these voting sessions, has been involved in compiling the questions, and
producing a report on what emerged.
In framing the report they also
canvass speakers, delegates and their own consultants about what the
results mean and then analyse the replies and responses to see how they
might be used to identify challenges and to feed into the formulation of
strategy.
"This year's 16-page report makes compelling reading for everyone
involved in the international gas industry, it is always eagerly awaited
by all who attended EAGC and by the wider gas community," said event
director, Tony Stephenson of dmg world media (uk) ltd.
"The introduction
spells out the uncertainties that face the industry, and then looks at
the various votes taken throughout the two days in Dusseldorf,
discussing the findings in detail and in many crucial instances
comparing voting on similar topics in 2005 and 2006 to give an overall
picture of the views of the industry. I commend Gas Strategies for
their work in framing the questions and producing such a relevant and
topical report."
Excerpts from the report
The introduction to the report sets the scene: "While it has become a
cliché to talk of 'uncertain times', it may indeed be the differences in
how market participants perceive this uncertainty and how they respond
to it that represents the factor of greatest significance.
"From the opening session of the EAGC 2007, when the fundamental
question was posed "what if we don't know what the future holds?" the
one word that sums up the mood of the event is "uncertainty" - in many
new guises. In almost every dimension of the natural gas business,
European producers, transporters, traders, suppliers and customers
recognise a range of uncertainties whose interactions with each other
are having multiplying effects.
"These uncertainties relate to supply, to demand, to price, to
regulation, to policy and to creeping globalisation of what were
previously isolated regional markets. Each of these elements is in a new
territory and there is a growing realisation that they are combining to
represent new frontiers for the natural gas industry. The formulation of
strategies for responding to these challenges can no longer rely on the
tried and tested answers of the past - event industry players who share
a similar heritage are clearly seeing different priorities and different
views of the future."
As the authors of the report explain: "At Gas Strategies our synthesis
includes the observation that the days of the natural gas industry being
totally transparent and understood by all have passed. This uncertainty
represents great opportunity, but it may well be the case that it is
only through seeking to take advantage of that uncertainty - and
embracing greater risk - that individual European players can hope to
succeed in the future."
The report looks at energy markets: politics, supply and pricing;
management, business operations and change;
and midstream
infrastructure: pipelines, LNG terminals and storage, in every instance
showing the voting results from EAGC and explaining the views behind the
votes.
Looking forward
The 23rd EAGC will be hosted by Eni and held at the Spazio Villa Erba,
Cernobbio on Lake Como, Italy on 25 and 26 November 2008.
For more information see www.theeagc.com
Posted by Richard Price, Editor, EnergyME.com
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